(This topic deserves more analysis– as far as I’m concerned, it’s the biggest news of the day . . . and of the week, so far! – promoted by The Caped Composer)
Just as we were starting to give up on the Pine Tree State, a new Rasmussen poll shows incumbent Republican Susan Collins' lead shrinking (5/14 in parens):
Tom Allen (D): 42 (42)
Susan Collins (R, inc): 49 (52)
(MoE: ±4%)
The poll found that Collins' favorability, while still high, has fallen from since last month, and her unfavorables have risen slightly. Allen's numbers, by contrast, have remained static. The most surprising finding here is the fact that Collins has a double-digit lead among men, but leads by only two points among women. Discuss.
This race may still be an uphill battle, but, let's just say it's akin to climbing Cadillac, more than Katahdin.
another day; ANOTHER GREAT POLL FOR THE GOOD GUYS!!!!!……
Tom Allen’s support stayed the same, while Collins’ went down. Where did it go? Did they become undecided?
60 seats has to be the goal for us this cycle anything less is a failure. 61 if we wanna get greedy and kick Lieberman’s ass out.
Seriously when did we last have such good news.
Collins’ 65% approval rating is still really high. While people in Maine hate the GOP and want Bush gone, the voters there really like her. Allen’s number did not rise because more voters are questioning their support of Collins, but are not yet ready to flip the switch for the Democrat in November.
The difference between Lincoln Chafee in 2006 and this race is that I think Collins’ approvals are even higher than Chafee’s were.
If the race continues to tighten further, then we may really have to take notice. Allen and the DSCC needs to remind voters that Collins was a compliant rubber stamp for Bush until that became unfashionable.
Wasn’t going to be an easy race, but I thought all the people who were counting Allen out were being extremely pre-mature. By all accounts he’s run a very good race, focusing on building up an infrastrucutre in the 2nd district.
We’re 5 months away from the election and I like where Allen stands.
Out of curiousity, I just checked the Rasmussen archives for their last poll of the Rhode Island Senate race in 2006.
In Rasmussen’s October 24, 2006 poll (where Chafee was down 50-42; he ultimately lost 53-47), Chafee maintained a 60% approval rating.
This is very interesting for this race. While Rhode Island is more liberal than Maine, I think that Chafee’s case well demonstrates that voters can be persuaded to oust a sitting Senator even if they really like him/her. Chafee had a very high approval rating and still lost by six percent.
If this case is applicable in ME-Sen 2008, we need to keep chipping away at Collins’ high approvals just as we did so effectively with Chafee.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
I’ve always thought this race would get closer. It’s definitely right up there with Oregon, Mississippi, and Minnesota as slightly lean Republican races that could easily all go Democratic if things go right for us this November. And Allen has a huge amount of campaign money that I don’t think he has started using quite yet.
. . . why Collins is doing better among men than among women. That is very atypical for a female candidate. I’ve had a hard time understanding Collins’ popularity in the first place; the only conclusion I can come to is that she has positioned herself as Snowe’s “Mini-Me,” co-opting a sliver of the extreme popularity of Maine’s senior Senator. Any thoughts?
an election is basically a job interview; this poll tells us that allen has a REAL chance at getting the job(collins is below the MAGIC 50%;ANY incumbent below 50% is vulnerable); he has an opening, now he has to sell “sell himself” AND GET THE JOB
Tom Allen will win the liberal, Yuppified first district, but he will get crushed in the second district. He is an arrogant, extremely liberal Yuppie from the South Coast. Those of us from the second district consider Portland to be Massachusetts North. I’m betting McCain gets 1 electoral vote out of Maine’s second district with Obama on the ballot.
How well has Tom Allen supported the forest products industry? Not well at all. Everyone in the second district now realizes how awful tourism jobs are and how great forest products jobs are.
Can you imagine the US economy with a 61 seat democratic Senate, Democratic President and Democratic House? Hello Germany, with double digit unemployment and very low single digit growth as far as the eye can see.
So it’s possible. Unless he totally bombs in the debates like Patsy Madrid did going up against Heather Wilson in NM-01 back in 2006.
ME is a Dem state, hates the war, hates Bush but has a thing about it female senators. Just as NH has a bizarre attraction to McCain, ME seems quite attached to its senators. Make no mistake. It is NOT another RI!
It will require constant identification of Collins with Bush for Allen to win. Also it will take LOTS of financial support from the DSCC, lots of media, lots of publicity.
It really is encouraging, especially for those of us who have been contributing monthly since ’07, finally to see some movement here after so many months of a static situation. Collins is a high-profile senator, esp for ME tho she hasn’t done so well with Homeland Security. If Allen is to win, it will require a constant, every-day reminder to Maineiacs that Collins has on the whole been a loyal Bush soldier.
Is it doable? Dunno, but it’s worth the effort–AND money! Without a pick-up here, reaching 60 or 61 will be extremely difficult.
Finally. Really. Some vindication on a race so many have been pesimistic on and I just hadn’t quite given up yet.
Everyone seems nearly giddy to throw these races to the R-Incumbent when talking about their senate rankings. It’s depressing.
I was looking at the Portland (Maine, not Oregon) paper on the net last week and was stunned by how bad things seem to be in Maine. There was a long article about people cutting back on their food budget to pay for the increase in gas prices. The secret “solution” seemed to be a huge rise in dependence on home gardens. (At best, that will not help outside the summer and early fall.) There was another article about a paper mill closing. The general consensus seemed to be that the state was in the worst shape it had beeen in since the Reagan depression of the early 80s.
Maine is not a rich state, at least if the cost of heating and gasoline enters the equation. What is Susan Collins doing to force some positive change out of George W. Bush. Not only is Bush a natural villain but the combination of two “oil men” could be devastating come the fall. If gas prices don’t drop by election day, the prospects for a very pricey winter heating bill are very good. Again, Collins may be “a nice lady” but what is she doing to solve the problem or at least ameliorate things.
Collins has become an enabler of failed policies that are choking the life blood out of Maine. (Gas prices can’t be good for tourism, either). This one is winnable.
Though Allen is doing a great job fundraising in his own right. We may not have to dump too much into ME to help Allen.
What’s wrong with Germany or Western Europe for that matter. Why the hell wouldnt we want to be like France, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Britain. Best standard of living is certainly in Western Europe. I really wish we were more like Western Europe. ::sigh::
If I’m not mistaken the more progressive northeast tends to have more women elected at most levels of government than other regions of the U.S., especially the southeast. I know I read that in an article somewhere. Maybe they feel they already are well represented and therefore just vote for the candidate that best represents their interest.